This is step 4 of a four-step chain - the payoff. Below is the chosen solution candidate from step 3. Produce a decision memo using this structure:
1. Decision: one sentence.
2. Options considered: the 2-3 candidates from step 3, each with a one-line description and the tradeoff.
3. Criteria: priority-ordered list of what matters in this decision. Maximum 4.
4. Recommendation: one paragraph anchored to the criteria.
5. Risks: 2-3 risks with one-line mitigations.
6. What would change our mind: the specific conditions under which we'd reverse course (mandatory).
The full chain (steps 1-4) takes ~20 minutes and produces a decision memo grounded in real customer evidence rather than your assumptions. Use it on decisions you don't already have a strong opinion about - the chain is designed to challenge priors, not confirm them.
The chosen candidate from step 3:
{{chosen_candidate}}
Discovery-to-decision: step 4 (decision memo)
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the prompt
Example output
Decision: Ship solution C (skip permissions, degraded mode) over Q3 weeks 1-3.
Options considered:
- A) Defer permissions until first use. ~1 week. Lower risk, smaller upside.
- B) Single 'we need 4 permissions' screen. ~3 days. Smallest change, smallest improvement.
- C) Skip permissions entirely; degraded mode (chosen). ~3 weeks. Highest effort, highest upside, addresses the theme at root.
Criteria (priority order):
1. New-user activation rate - this is the metric the theme directly affects.
2. Engineering cost vs. benefit.
3. Power-user retention (must not degrade in pursuit of new-user wins).
Recommendation: C. The theme says 100% of new users hit setup friction. Solutions A and B trim the friction; C eliminates it for the casual-user cohort that we're losing. Power-user retention is protected because power users will still hit the permission prompts the moment they use the features that need them.
Risks:
- Engineering scope is 3x A's scope. Mitigation: scope is well-known (no new architecture), just refactoring.
- Casual users may not convert to power users without the structured onboarding. Mitigation: instrument the casual-to-power transition explicitly so we can see if it degrades.
- Some currently-shipped power features assume permissions at startup. Mitigation: audit and refactor those during the 3-week window.
What would change our mind: New-user activation rate after C ships fails to improve by at least 15% in 30 days, OR power-user retention drops 5%+ in the same window. Either triggers an immediate revert to solution A.
Common mistakes
Don't run step 4 without running steps 1-3 first. The whole point of the chain is that the decision memo is grounded in real customer voice. Skipping to step 4 with vague inputs gives you the same decision memo you'd have written without the chain. Also: don't use the chain when you already have a strong opinion. The chain is designed to challenge your priors. If you've already decided, you'll find ways to interpret the customer evidence to support what you wanted to do - and the chain becomes an elaborate justification engine.
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Why it works
Step 4 of the chain - the payoff. Takes the chosen solution candidate from step 3 and produces a decision memo (same format as the standalone Decision Memo prompt above): decision, options considered, criteria, recommendation, risks, what would change our mind. The difference is that the inputs come from real customer evidence (steps 1-2) and structured option generation (step 3) rather than your assumptions. The full chain (steps 1-4) takes ~20 minutes to run and produces a decision memo grounded in customer voice from the start. This is the workflow no competing PM pack ships - and the one most likely to be screenshot-shared on PM Twitter. Tested cleanest on Claude Opus 4.7.